# mid wk3

## Suppliers

Should a firm attempt to have fewer or more suppliers? What are the advantages and disadvantages of each approach? Your initial post should be 200-250 words.

Guided Response: Respond to at least two of your classmatesâ€™ posts in a substantive manner. Some ways could include examples, current events, and/or possible outcomes.

Carefully review the Discussion Forum Grading Rubric for the criteria that will be used to evaluate this Discussion Thread.

## Forecasting Methods

Read Problem 6 in Chapter 6 of your textbook. Calculate and answer parts a through d. Include all calculations and spreadsheets in your post. Explain why the moving average method was used instead of another forecasting method. What might be another forecasting method that could prove to be just as useful? Your initial post should be 200-250 words.

Guided Response: Respond to at least two of your classmatesâ€™ posts to identify some of their recommended forecasting methods. Give additional advice and alternative solutions that might be used as well.

Carefully review the Discussion Forum Grading Rubric for the criteria that will be used to evaluate this Discussion Thread.

1.

Question 6: The figures below indicate the number of mergers that took place in the savings and loan industry over a 12-year period.

 Year Mergers Year Mergers 2000 46 2006 83 2001 46 2007 123 2002 62 2008 97 2003 45 2009 186 2004 64 2010 225 2005 61 2011 240

1. Calculate a 5-year moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012.

1. Use the moving average technique to determine the forecast for 2005 to 2011. Calculate measurement error using MSE and MAD.

1. Calculate a 5-year weighted moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012. Use weights of 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30,with the most recent year weighted being the largest.

1. Use regression analysis to forecast the number of mergers in 2012.